Published: November 28th 2023, 10:42:51 pm
Israel-Palestine Future
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know what’s going on in Israel and Palestine and have some opinion on it. There are plenty of videos of people arguing about those opinions, condemning or complementing one side or the other, but this is not one of those videos. I’m going to look at the cold, hard facts and try to predict the outcome of this war and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
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First, let’s recap what’s happened so far:
On October 7, Gaza’s Islamic Resistance Movement—Hamas—launched a surprise attack into Israel. The group killed more than a thousand people, including many innocent civilians, and took hostages. In retaliation, Israel began to siege Gaza; its bombing campaign has so far killed thousands of people in the past month. While those bombings have killed Hamas fighters, most victims have been innocent civilians; the humanitarian toll of this conflict is very large. Meanwhile, the Israeli army mobilized and prepared for an occupation of northern Gaza; by late November they plunged into the territory, so far occupying the areas surrounding Gaza City and parts of the dense city itself.
Israel has been under increasing pressure from the EU, the US, and of course its neighbors to temper its response. It began to hold brief humanitarian pauses in early November.
After much negotiation, Israel and Hamas began a ceasefire to exchange hostages and prisoners on November 24.
This deal has been extended several days.
However, tensions have threatened to spill over into a wider war; the US has focused military power into the area and bombed a site in Syria; meanwhile, pro-Iran forces in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria have launched a couple missiles against Israel.
In particular, Hezbollah, a powerful Islamist group in Lebanon, is saber-rattling, but doesn’t seem eager to join the war just yet.
This whole thing of course puts Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt—powers who’ve warmed up to Israel as a partner against Iran—in a tough spot.
Alongside the obvious humanitarian crisis occurring now, there is a looming risk of wider war in the Middle East. Will that happen?
First, predictions are often incorrect; it’s impossible to consider all the variables and if I could, I’d be selling my formula to Joe Biden and not making YouTube videos. But you can look at pretty clear evidence to determine the most likely outcome.
First: what will happen with this ceasefire? There are two different paths in order of likelihood:
1. The ceasefire ends some point after a few days or maybe weeks, at which point Israel continues its bombing campaign.
2. The ceasefire continues for the long-term, with Israeli troops maintaining the current occupation lines.
The second option just is not likely. I very well may be wrong, but Israel has committed itself to destroying Hamas and backing down now would doubtlessly be unpopular to the Israeli public. Also, Israeli troops are already in Gaza vulnerable to attack; violence is bound to break out in such a circumstance, at which point the ceasefire would crumble apart. For now, both sides have a short-term motive to keep the ceasefire going: Israel wants to recover hostages, while Hamas wants the chance to regroup and for Israel to release prisoners. But, most likely
Israel will continue its bombing campaign through early December and the coming weeks. Again, its goal is to recover hostages and destroy Hamas.
After the ceasefire, Israel will continue its operations in northern Gaza until it occupies all of Gaza City. It’s hard to say exactly when, but it seems in all likelihood that Israel will launch an invasion of central and southern Gaza in December or January. It will particularly target Hamas forces in Khan Yunis, which it has bombed repeatedly over the past month. Future ceasefires may be agreed to so Hamas can release hostages, but those would not last long either. It’s hard to say how many hostages Israel will recover, but it is clear that a large portion will lose their lives as a result of the fighting.
This fighting will exacerbate the extreme humanitarian crisis, pushing thousands and thousands of Gazans toward the closed border with Egypt.
The United States, which has close ties with Egypt, may come up with a deal where Egypt hosts Palestinian refugees temporarily in camps along the border with Gaza. Qatar, another powerful regional player, may assist in some form. However, Egypt has appeared very reluctant to open its borders.
Once Israel has troops across Gaza, the war will enter its lengthy third phase: counter-terrorism. Israeli troops will hunt through Gaza for any and all agents of Hamas and other resistance groups. Guerrilla fighting will escalate; expect large numbers of casualties on both sides. Hamas and other guerrilla groups will use bombings and ambushes, especially in dense urban areas. This phase will continue deep into 2024 as Israel struggles to accomplish the war aim of completely destroying armed resistance in Gaza.
As the civilian death toll climbs above 20,000, Israel will face growing international calls for ceasefire and/or an exit. These will be especially powerful from Iran, a regional enemy to Israel, and Hezbollah, which controls most of southern Lebanon and has launched rockets into Israel before. Saudi Arabia and other neutral countries will also pressure Israel to exit Gaza.
However, I doubt that Israel will leave Gaza in the near future.
For a historical comparison, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in 1985 in response to a series of attacks carried out by Islamist forces. Those attacks were not as poignant as that of October 7, and Israel occupied southern Lebanon until 2000—15 years.
And of course Israel originally occupied Gaza for nearly forty years and has occupied most of the West Bank for nearly sixty.
So, once Israel has control of Gaza, expect it to maintain control of the territory for a lengthy period of time. Marshall law, mounting casualties, and abuses will likely happen. Hamas, meanwhile, will be pushed deep underground; alongside Israeli troops searching through the tunnels across Gaza, Israeli special forces will target exiled Hamas chiefs throughout the Middle East, including those that have refuge in Turkey and Qatar. They may flee to unstable countries, such as Syria or Libya.
While Israel cuts off those hydra heads, others will grow to replace them. The Islamic Jihad Movement, which is Gaza’s second largest militant group, might surpass Hamas. Certainly, Israel has absolutely zero good will in Gaza; many, many people will be enraged at Israel for the bombing campaign and occupation. Civil dissidence, riots, and spontaneous attacks against Israeli forces will grow over time, likely in both Gaza and the West Bank. There is a significant risk that another Israeli occupation of Gaza causes a Third Intifada: a widespread uprising against Israel.
It's very possible that Israeli forces suffer attacks from militant groups in the West Bank; already Israeli settlers there have killed Palestinians. This will result in a death spiral of violence as Israeli forces and settlers attack Palestinians in retaliation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who previously appeared completely invulnerable to scandal, may finally lose power as a result of this; his approval rating is especially low, as many in Israel blame him for failing to prevent the October 7 attack.
If you add a prolonged military occupation on top of that, Netanyahu may lose power. So, who would replace Israel’s own Richard Nixon?
The most likely next Prime Minister of Israel is Benny Gantz, an ex-general and the head of the center-right National Unity Party which has spiked in popularity since October 7.
Gantz right now is in a national unity government with Netanyahu, but he may leave, which would increase the chances Netanyahu faces an early election and loses his job. Gantz and Netanyahu seem mostly in agreement that Israel will need to destroy Hamas and control Gaza. Netanyahu has said he does not wish the current Palestinian Authority—the civil government of the West Bank—to control Gaza; Gantz, on the other hand, has not provided much in terms of a possible path forward.
The second largest party in the Israeli parliament is Yesh Atid, whose leader Yair Lapid was Prime Minister before Netanyahu returned to power. Together with other opposition parties, this centrist party may take power. Lapid has stated that Israel should destroy Hamas, but that ultimately the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, should control Gaza again after some period of Israeli occupation.
After Yesh Atid comes a major faction in Netanyahu’s government: the radical far right, which includes Jewish Power and the Religious Zionist Party.
At the head of that second party is Bezalel Smotrich, who has proposed that Palestinians “voluntarily”—that’s in quotation marks—move from Gaza to other countries and has rejected any independent government for Gaza. Smotrich is hardly alone in his support for such policies.
Currently, polls in Israel show that Benny Gantz and his National Unity Party have the most support. Netanyahu has said that elections should only be held after the war, but they have to be held by 2026 and will likely be held sooner as opposition to Netanyahu grows; opposition forces just need a majority.
Whether or not Netanyahu stays in power or if he loses it to the center or the far-right, the following are the paths forward in order of likelihood:
One: Israel occupies Gaza for a prolonged period of more than a couple years and probably a maximum of 15. While Israeli security forces dominate the territory, in the mid-term, increasing resistance to Israel—the Intifadah I mentioned earlier—drives some Israeli Prime Minister, maybe Benny Gantz, to the negotiation table, likely hosted by Qatar or Egypt. Israel agrees to withdraw to a security zone consisting of the northern half of Gaza and its eastern border, while the interior of the territory is governed by some form of the Palestinian Authority. This is so any militant group cannot easily launch attacks against major cities. Since President Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine is ancient at this point, Israel will likely be negotiating with the man most likely to be his successor, Hussein al-Sheikh of the group Fatah. While Israel will likely want the Palestinian Authority to crack down especially hard on any Islamist groups, it may not have the leverage needed to secure major concessions.
Option two: Israel occupies Gaza for a shorter period of time, then turns over the interior of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority. This seems to be the plan most likely to be embraced by centrist parties like Yair Lapid. In both of these options, the risk of the Palestinian Authority losing Gaza to some radical group again, perhaps the Islamic Jihad, is non-zero. Israel may also be eventually forced to evacuate from occupied areas, like it did back in 2005. The cycle of violence may just continue.
Option three: there’s also a chance that the Israeli radical right is voted into office. If that’s the case, don’t expect Israel to turn over any turf to the Palestinian Authority. Expect draconian enforcement of marshal law both in Gaza and the West Bank, with the IDF permitted to take extreme violent measures to any resistance. Expect the forced deportation of thousands of Palestinians, especially Gazans, into Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan. Expect the annexation of disputed territories in the West Bank, especially settlements. These radical actions may trigger wider conflict in the Middle East. To the north, Hezbollah appears poised to intervene against Israel. A radical right government by Smotrich may bring about a new Arab-Israeli War.
But let’s rewind back to option two for a minute. There is a chance that, if Israel gives power to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, a stable government may form. Moderate groups both in Israel and Palestine may, in the spirit of post-war talks, agree to a future path forward to grant Gaza and the West Bank greater autonomy and maybe, eventually, full independence. One could imagine that, in order for this to happen, Israel would have to withdraw from a large portion of settlements in the West Bank and compensate Palestine with territory elsewhere. Maybe some international commission, with representatives from Christians, Muslims, and Jews, has oversight of disputed holy lands.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman just might forge formal diplomatic relations with Israel, who could be a valuable partner against their regional rival, Iran. The 2030s might be as productive to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as the 1990s were, which after all followed years of war. I do not believe this is the most likely outcome. But, there’s a chance.
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